Energy Transition, Great Power Competition, and Spheres of Influence: Mexico’s Electricity, Electromobility, and the U.S.-China Rivalry

Abstract

This article analyses Mexico’s energy matrix transformation through the frameworks of Great Power Competition, spheres of influence, and hegemony. It argues that Mexico’s energy and transport transition is shaped by its strategic position within North America, its integration under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and the broader rivalry between the United States and China. On the supply side, Mexico remains highly dependent on fossil fuels, particularly oil and natural gas, while renewable electricity generation has expanded only partially and unevenly. On the demand side, the article studies electromobility, focusing on electric vehicles, electric buses and charging infrastructure. It shows that Mexico produces electric vehicles mainly for export, while Chinese increasingly dominate the domestic market and public transport electrification. The article concludes that Mexico’s energy transition is constrained by its location within the U.S. sphere of influence, even as Chinese technologies become central to lowcarbon mobility.