Nominating candidates with “surveys in hand”: The use of opinion polls as a mechanism for selecting candidates

Abstract

The lack of institutionalized mechanisms to select candidates in Chile has transformed opinion polls or surveys into REAL selection devices of candidates within the political parties and coalitions competing on different levels of popular representation. In some cases, surveys have become virtual 'primary' elections, becoming a crucial element in the process of selecting candidates. This factor has reached an unprecedented role in Chile during the period 2005 to 2009. This article contrasts the traditional methods of selecting candidates with this increasingly used "new mechanism." To carry out this work, we will analyze the candidate selection process for presidential and parliamentary elections in 2005 and the formulas used to select candidates for mayor in 2008 within the most important political conglomerates (Alianza por Chile and Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia). At a presidential level, we will analyze the impact of the most important national surveys conducted in the country (CEP, CERC, ADIMARK) in the selection of presidential candidates. This work will also contain some of the most emblematic cases occurred at the parliamentary and local level in order to illustrate the growing centralization of the electoral polls.