China and Latin America: The New Face of an Old Dependency. Is the Raw Materials Export Model Still Viable, or Has It Reached the End of its Cycle?
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Abstract
China’s rise as a global economic power has reshaped Latin America’s trade relations. Between 2000 and 2020, bilateral trade multiplied steadily, positioning China as South America’s main trading partner. However, what is argued here is that this geopolitical shift toward the Pacific has not modified the region’s subordinate position in the international division of labor, but rather has deepened the historical primary-export model.
This article comparatively analyzes Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile during 2000-2020, combining quantitative analysis of trade flows and investment with qualitative study of economic policies. The three countries concentrate between 65 % and 85 % of their exports to China in primary products: Chilean copper, Argentine soybeans, and Bolivian minerals, reproducing the center-periphery logic from the dependency theory.
Evidence reveals a process of reprimarization of their economies: while in 2000 Argentina reached 28 % of manufactures in exports, Chile 25 %, and Bolivia 12 %, by 2020 these percentages regressed to 18 %, 16 %, and 9 % respectively. The lithium case is paradigmatic: despite controlling 56 % of world reserves, the region remains anchored in primary extraction without significant industrialization.
The conclusion argues that the model is operative in the region but structurally exhausted, since it continues generating short-term foreign exchange but shows evident limits for sustainable development and real instances of innovation and industrialization. Latin America faces an old dependency with a different face, where trading partners changed but structures of subordination persist.
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